Irving Kristol’s quip that a “neoconservative is a liberal who has been mugged by reality” is one of my favorites. In a single line, the late Mr. Kristol characterized the entire mentality shift involved in going from naive utopianism in international politics to a resolved realist. The realization that, despite all the international treaties, intergovernmental panels, and commitments to human rights enshrined in liberal internationalism, dictators and despots have other intentions, no matter what they say.

For many left-wing interventionists, the turning point was the Bosnian War and the genocide at Srebrenica, eventually leading them to take the same side as the neoconservatives of the Bush-Blair era. For the rest, it was 9/11. For me, it was the Paris attacks in 2015. And for the incumbent US President, maybe it’s been the Iranian regime?

For a while, the US’s aggressive isolationism has had me worried and sad. The “America First” policy, which should have been taken more seriously from the start (especially in Europe), has now had its repercussions across the Western world. We in Europe and beyond are now fully attuned to a reality that the Third World has been ever-aware of: that the US is a fickle, flaky ally. Whether it’s Latin Americans or the Kurds or the Ukrainians, the Kissingerian confession of the fatal consequences of being America’s friend has never been more firmly on display. And though rationally it was to be expected, many of us in Europe who looked to the great American republic warmly (but not uncritically) have felt an anxious jolt from the threats toward Canada’s sovereignty and the nasty spectacle of Zelensky’s “dressing down” at the White House; many of us have felt and still feel betrayed and foolish.

On the other hand, the surge in support for American isolationism is completely understandable, even if it is illogical. Ordinary Americans have come off worse due to globalization, and the constant vitriol directed at them from Europeans and the rest of the world was bound to rebound at some point. Indeed, the unfairness of Europe dragging its feet over defense spending and NATO contributions is the perfect tableau of the thanklessness that Americans receive, and it is perfectly valid for them to be angry and reactive when they have their own material and political grievances. In a debate for Intelligence Squared US about whether America should be the world’s policeman, the British journalist Douglas Murray summed up the tragic position for Americans as the global hegemon:

“Nobody says it’s good being the world’s policeman, nobody says it’s enjoyable, nobody would want the job… other than people who you wouldn’t want to have the job.”

Despite running on an anti-war ticket—and in particular over the disaster in post-Saddam Iraq—Trump’s first term represented a much more pragmatic approach towards foreign relations, balanced with some principle. His alliance with the Kurds to help defeat Islamic State in Syria and Northern Iraq as well as striking the Al Shayrat airbase in 2017, contrary to his base’s majority opinion, were clearly driven by being mugged by the reality of America’s global power. His high point was his attempt to form the Democratic 10 (D10) alliance of European, Asian, and Oceanic countries to counter the growing influence of China and, although it failed, it was representative of a democratic realist goal of opposing totalitarianism. Another, though much underreported, win was also the Trump administration’s work in bringing Serbia and Kosovo closer to a possible reconciliation.

But ultimately, Trump’s original foreign policy ended in few advancements. Peace talks between North Korea and South Korea failed and collapsed, as well as the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, which, though catalyzed by Biden, was undoubtedly a Trump policy after holding talks with the Taliban in Doha.

In many ways, Trump’s foreign policy in his second term has continued in this trend of failure. The recrudescent isolationism on America’s right has gained even more influence, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the same errors in moral judgment made by left-wing “anti-imperialists” are being made by the right-wing Chomskyists, such as Tucker Carlson and Cadace Owens. There is now very little difference between their views and the views held by the average anti-war lefty on a college campus.

This isolationism has resulted in America’s bizarre and contradictory foreign policy we’re seeing play out today. The desire to remain a world power while at the same time trying to punish everyone for “taking advantage” of the US has had its consequences. Chauvinistic rhetoric and expansionist proposals towards three sovereign nations, as well as a complete decoupling from traditional democratic alliances, have pushed even moderates toward a greater anti-American mentality. Ultimately, this has proven something that I’ve been saying for a while: it is very unwise to entrust your defense and security to a single power, with its own interests. Both the EU and Britain (with Canada, New Zealand, and Australia) would be better served with establishing their own security agreements away from the US.

However, despite professing as much utopian isolationism as you like and trying to exit the world, reality soon catches up with you. Despite Trump’s own frustrations with Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president has had to come to terms with some truths that his base would never approve of. Though Trump has never been naive about the Iranian regime, the decision to take out the theocracy’s nuclear facilities in cooperation with Israel was undoubtedly a step in the right direction toward a less ideological foreign policy (as well as being a stroke of foreign policy brilliance from the Israeli PM). This, as well as increasing frustrations with Russian president Vladimir Putin over the failure to end the war in Ukraine, has led to a gradual reversal of the Trump administration’s earlier and shameful policy towards Ukraine. In other words, there’s a slither of democratic realism in the Trump mindset that we should want to cultivate.

So, perhaps Irving Kristol’s quip is not only applicable to liberals; US isolationists in today’s world are also susceptible to reality’s wakeup call when they are least expecting it, and, hopefully, we could see a little more of it in the future.

Destacado